Friday, October 31, 2014

It's All George Bush's Fault

The New York Times has often reflexively lent its voice to the chorus of  "It's All George Bush's Fault".  The editors probably missed the irony when they published this article pointing out that falling oil and gas prices are a direct result of actions taken by the reviled Bush-Cheney administration.


The Bush administration worked from the start on finding ways to unlock the nation’s energy reserves and reverse decades of declining output, with Mr. Cheney leading a White House energy task force that met in secret with top oil executives.
“Ramping up production was a high priority,” said Gale Norton, a member of the task force and the secretary of the Interior at the time. “We hated being at the mercy of other countries, and we were determined to change that.”
The task force’s work helped produce the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which set rules that contributed to the current surge. It prohibited the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating fracking under the Safe Drinking Water Act, eliminating a potential impediment to wide use of the technique. The legislation also offered the industry billions of dollars in new tax breaks to help independent producers recoup some drilling costs even when a well came up dry.
Separately, the Interior Department was granted the power to issue drilling permits on millions of acres of federal lands without extensive environmental impact studies for individual projects, addressing industry complaints about the glacial pace of approvals. That new power has been used at least 8,400 times, mostly in Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico, representing a quarter of all permits issued on federal land in the last six federal fiscal years.
The Bush administration also opened large swaths of the Gulf of Mexico and the waters off Alaska to exploration, granting lease deals that required companies to pay only a tiny share of their profits to the government.
These measures primed the pump for the burst in drilling that began once oil prices started rising sharply in 2005 and 2006. — The New York Times

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Job Creation is All in Texas

The President has recently taken to touting his "job creation" performance by pointing out that in the last six years, the US economy has created over 300,000 new jobs. Not particularly good, but it allows the President to suggest that his policies have had a positive effect. But as it turns out, the job growth has all been in one state -- Texas.

US job growth                    +327,000
Texas job growth            +1,320, 255
US (other than Texas)       -  993,255

But for Texas, the US would have lost almost a million jobs! And why did Texas add so many jobs?

1. Fossil fuels extraction
2. Lower taxes
3. Less regulation
4. Right-to-work laws

All things that the President opposes.

Sort of casts a different light on the claim that the President policies can create any jobs in the future.

Friday, October 3, 2014

The Unemployment Rate Does not Measure Labor Market Vitality

Despite what you will hear out of Washington, there is really only one reason that the reported unemployment rate keeps dropping. Each month there are fewer people actually participating in the workforce. The unemployment number you see reported each month is the percentage of the people in the workforce who are unemployed. When the denominator of that ratio drops, the unemployment number drops even though there may be no more people actually employed.

You will sometimes hear that the drop in labor force participation is due to more people taking normal retirement. This may be happening, but take a look at the chart below. Do you think the normal retirement rate suddenly accelerated starting in 2007?

The number of people not working increased by 315,000 this month to a record 92.6 million. Anyway you cut it, that's not good. Fewer people working -- for whatever reason -- means fewer people producing things and (in general) less money to spend buying things. There is no way that the US economy can have robust growth when fewer people are working each money,