Monday, June 30, 2014

The Scientific Method Part 2

The scientific test of alternate theories is how well they account for observed data.

Theory 1 (aka Al Gore's hockey stick): Increases in CO2 emissions are causing the earth's average temperature to rise at an accelerating rate. The rise in temperature will result in the melting of polar ice caps.

Theory 2 (aka the Null hypothesis): CO2 emissions are not causing the earth's temperature to rise nor to melt polar ice.   

Observed data:


Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice


Antarctic sea ice has set a new all-time record maximum over the weekend of June 28-29, 2014.


Which hypothesis better explains the results that have been observed? 

Now, the observed data does not prove or disprove either hypothesis, and the total global ice anomaly is not at record levels (but it's still above the average of the last 25 years. 


Global Sea Ice
 

But as of now, it is the Null hypothesis that is supported by true scientific method. 

No comments:

Post a Comment