The Future in Four Charts

An economy where fewer and fewer people work . . .

to support more and more dependents . . . 

on ever increasing levels of government spending . . .

 

 

financed by growing levels of debt . . .

is not one conducive to high levels of growth.

Where The Jobs Aren't

According to employment forecasts from the BLS here are the 30 occupations that are expected to experience the largest job growth between 2010 and 2020. Only 5 of them require a college degree or higher while half require a high school degree. Yet we are encouraging more and more of our young people to borrow huge sums to get higher educational credentials while allowing more and more to fail to obtain a high school diploma. Only government could take its own market research and construct policies exactly opposite to what that research suggests.

Rank	Occupation	Entry-Level Education	Jobs in 2010 (1,000s)	Jobs in 2020 (1,000s)	Increase (1,000s)
1	Registered Nurses	BA	2,737.4	3,449.3	711.9
2	Retail Salespersons	Less than HS	4,261.6	4,968.4	706.8
3	Home Health Aides	Less than HS	1,017.7	1,723.9	706.3
4	Personal Care Aides	Less than HS	861.0	1,468.0	607.0
5	Office Clerks, General	High School	2,950.7	3,440.2	489.5
6	Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food	Less than HS	2,682.1	3,080.1	398.0
7	Customer Service Representatives	High School	2,187.3	2,525.6	338.4
8	Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers	High School	1,604.8	1,934.9	330.1
9	Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand	Less than HS	2,068.2	2,387.3	319.1
10	Postsecondary Teachers	Doctoral	1,756.0	2,061.7	305.7
11	Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants	High School	1,505.3	1,807.2	302.0
12	Childcare Workers	High School	1,282.3	1,544.3	262.0
13	Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks	High School	1,898.3	2,157.4	259.0
14	Cashiers	Less than HS	3,362.6	3,612.8	250.2
15	Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education	BA	1,476.5	1,725.3	248.8
16	Receptionists and Information Clerks	High School	1,048.5	1,297.0	248.5
17	Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners	Less than HS	2,310.4	2,556.8	246.4
18	Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers	Less than HS	1,151.5	1,392.3	240.8
19	Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing	High School	1,430.0	1,653.4	223.4
20	Construction Laborers	Less than HS	998.8	1,211.2	212.4
21	Medical Secretaries	High School	508.7	718.9	210.2
22	Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers	High School	1,424.4	1,627.8	203.4
23	Carpenters	High School	1,001.7	1,197.6	196.0
24	Waiters and Waitresses	Less than HS	2,260.3	2,456.2	195.9
25	Security Guards	High School	1,035.7	1,230.7	195.0
26	Teacher Assistants	High School	1,288.3	1,479.3	191.1
27	Accountants and Auditors	BA	1,216.9	1,407.6	190.7
28	Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses	High School	752.3	920.8	168.5
29	Physicians and Surgeons	Doctoral	691.0	859.3	168.3
30	Medical Assistants	High School	527.6	690.4	162.9

Sad? Collect Disability.

Below is a simple table that shows what has happened to the number of people claiming Social Security disability payments over the last 50 years.

                     Number on Disability      % Population

1960                       455,000                    0.65%
2011                    8,600,000                    5.60%

There are two possibilities here:

A. The workplace has gotten incredibly more dangerous
B. The number of people being granted bogus disability claims has increased

You make the call.

Hint: Did you know that you can qualify for disability by claiming a "mood disorder" (otherwise known as "being sad")?

Tution Bubble

You may recall the housing bubble where the rise in cost of housing greatly outstripped the rise in the public's average income that is necessary to support the purchase of that asset? Pop! What do you think is going to happen here? In both cases the government was/is driving inflation of the underlying asset price via loan subsidies. In the case of housing, you can discharge your debt by allowing the lender to foreclose. What do you do with your education loans when you discover you are not generating the income to service the debt? If the recent election is any guide, you ask the gainfully employed taxpayers who didn't borrow irresponsibly to bail you out. This is now The American Way.