Tuesday, August 15, 2017

It's All About the Children, Right?

Percent change since 1950

Students                                 +100%

Teachers                                +240%

Administrative Staff              +695%

Spending per pupil                +368%

Mean SAT score                      -10%

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

You Don't Learn Logic in Journalism School

This article in the Seattle Times entitled "Seven tips to help you graduate from college in four years" demonstrates that they don't teach logic or statistical inference in journalism school (but ought to).

It may sound counterintuitive, but freshmen college students who take a full load of reasonably demanding courses are more likely to graduate from college on time.
That’s part of the message Western Washington University has been conveying to its students in a campaign called “15 to Finish,” which encourages students to work hard from the outset.

Why would it be counterintuitive? Because the author is committing the fallacy of Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X.) She observes that faster graduation rates follow demanding course loads and concludes that the course loads are what causes that.

Isn't it more likely that students who are innately ambitious and intent to graduate to get on with their lives are also innately more serious about academics -- i.e. interested in actually learning more on the way to their degree?

Ms Long labels herself a "higher education reporter".  Perhaps it's time to go back to school?

The Power of Compound Growth

You've heard this advice: Start saving early for your retirement. Consider this example. Investor B opens an IRA at age 19. For seven consecutive years he puts $2,000 in his IRA at an average growth rate of 10% (7% interest plus growth). After seven years this investor makes NO MORE contributions -- he's finished.

A second investor A makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he's 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).

Whos is better off? Check the chart below. 






Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Climate Changing? Gender Inequality is the Culprit.

If you want to understand the irrational extent of climate change hysterics, read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Among the policy recommendations from this illustrious group of "scientists" are "reduced gender inequality & marginalization in other forms,” “provisioning of adequate housing,” and “cash transfers”.  All scientifically proven ways to reduce the planet's temperature of course